FINAL

Well, those semi-finals ended up being as clear as mud – however my predictions on the 3 acts from each semi what WOULDN’T qualify did ring true!

So first let’s look at is the final running order. As is it has been for the past few years the producers of the show formulate the running order. This is to try and stop similar songs, or too different, songs being placed next to each other in major succession when drawn randomly. The only parameters they have to go on is each finalist drew a lot to decide if they are in the top or bottom half of the draw. Plus the host nation, Sweden drew their placing at random at the delegation meeting back in March.

This is how Saturday night will pan out…

Grand final running order

Belgium

Czech Republic

The Netherlands

Azerbaijan

Hungary

Italy

Israel

Bulgaria

Sweden

Germany

France

Poland

Australia

Cyprus

Serbia

Lithuania

Croatia

Russia

Spain

Latvia

Ukraine

Malta

Georgia

Austria

United Kingdom

Armenia

It is a rather odd running order.

Belgium, like Finland in the first semi-final is a rather safe and stereotypical number to start off the night and does slightly put the slower songs of Czech Republic and Netherlands in the shade. It’s not really until Bulgaria who are the 8th song does it perk up again.

France get a good draw being between two quite samey ballads. Australia are followed by Cyprus which may be so loud you totally forget her OR remind you how good a singer she is. The second half of the draw is very messy. Having Russia followed by Spain makes no sense and having such a gentle song like Austria preceded by Georgia will be such a stark difference I feel it won’t do either song any good. UK being second last is nice but may well be out classed by Armenia in the last position. However I feel that by the time Georgia has finished the last 4 won’t be seen or heard due to blotchy eyes and ringing ears.

POINTS TO NOTE

*Sweden is the only Nordic nation in the final so one may assume that high numbers of points from those DNQ countries might go their way. That said, Sweden won’t have it their own way as will may have some competition from Latvia who have a similar act with a far more emotive song.

In the same vein you could note that Croatia and Serbia are the only ex-Yugoslav countries in the final so you would expect the others to be giving them a larger score than average. Although this might not make be big enough to win, the shifting of votes might be big enough for a favourite to lose.

*On the other hand there are 7 ex-USSR countries in the final and I feel that ALL the old Soviet states may find their loyalties and loves stretched across all seven in the final. Yes, Russia will probably get the majority of the 12s but those that don’t may be cost them the win. And although there is no such thing as a ‘sympathy vote’ there may well be a ‘solidarity vote’ or ‘tactical vote’ away from Russia instead – probably towards Ukraine (due to politics) or Georgia (because of diverse genre|)

*It was nice to see the 6 automatic finalists being shown during the semi-finals. Although each clip was only seen for a minute it makes you that little bit more familiar with the before you see them properly in full. I feel that this gesture really hasn’t changed any of the big 5 plus Sweden’s chances.

*I also feel that those more divisive songs and singers e.g. Ukraine, Georgia,  Cyprus, Austria, Israel etc. etc., may cancel out or remove votes from more populist countries like Sweden and Russia. This may mean that those countries running close behind might actually end up winning a portion of the televote.

*I doubt very much in this close run year that the jury winner will be the televote winner. With the 100/100 scoring we have now it will be ultra clear as to who has voted what and ‘trends’ will be easier to spot. After a Russian jury member was disqualified earlier in the week for filming the jury final on periscope AND discussing her feelings with other jurors, this part will be under real scrutiny. I feel that the jury winner will be more an all-round show whilst the televote winner will either be best show OR best vocal.

Basically I *still* have no clue how this is going to go. There seem to be 5-6 songs leading the betting however I feel you can take France out of that equation. The voting sequence at the end, where all the televotes are collated and given individually to each country in ascending order will make for a very exciting ending especially if the jury vote and televote are dissimilar.

All I will say is this – PLEASE VOTE... *but* vote carefully and vote for what you like. This year more than any other, your vote could well make a difference between someone winning and losing…

Cue LT United...

.... and here s my FINAL pre-final favourites list.
This is NOT what I think will happen just the songs in order of my favourites :)

Rank      Entry
1  Georgia Nika Kocharov & Young Georgian Lolitaz Midnight Gold
2  Australia Dami Im Sound of Silence
3  Croatia Nina Kraljić Lighthouse
4  Ukraine Jamala 1944
5  Latvia Justs Heartbeat
6  Czech Republic Gabriela Gunčíková I Stand
7  Belgium Laura Tesoro What's the Pressure
8  Russia Sergey Lazarev You Are the Only One
9  United Kingdom Joe & Jake You're Not Alone
10  Austria  Zoë Loin d'ici
11  Bulgaria Poli Genova If Love Was a Crime
12  Spain Barei Say Yay!
13  Cyprus Minus One  Alter Ego
14  France Amir J'ai cherché
15  Italy Francesca Michielin Nessun grado di separazione
16  Serbia ZAA Sanja Vučić Goodbye (Shelter)
17  Germany Jamie-Lee Kriewitz Ghost
18  Malta Ira Losco Walk on Water
19  Poland Michał Szpak Color of Your Life
20  Armenia Iveta Mukuchyan LoveWave
21  Azerbaijan Samra  Miracle
22  Hungary Freddie Pioneer
23  Israel Hovi Star Made of Stars
24  Lithuania Donny Montell I've Been Waiting for This Night
25  Sweden Frans  If I Were Sorry
26  Netherlands Douwe Bob Slow Down

SEMI FINALS

It is finally Eurovision week and it's time to think about predictions!

For the first time in a loooooooooooooong time, fans, insiders and bookiess all seem a bit at sea - no-one seems to agree or settle on a major favourite or out and out probable winner. And after a week of rehearsals, some songs seem to have shot up, others wavered and others sank like a stone. I have taken a conscious decision this year NOT to watch rehearsal footage on line (although I will admit to watching 3-4 clips online just to see the fuss). Partially this is a time issue as I'm working full time at the moment AND having to cope with a high maintenance Squirt, and partially because I would like to leave some of the surprises to the actual night. I have however been keeping up with the views and opinions on twitter and facebook as well as an eye on the live feed from eurovision.tv . On here they have montage videos summing up the day's events that last only a few minutes each as well as looking at the photo albums from the rehearsals.

My opinions have changed over time and have slightly altered over the past week. I would say that it's not so much that lots of songs have gone up in my estimation, more that lots of performances have put me off. There is a lot of unnecessaryness (is that even a word?) this year in terms of stage costumes and props and I get the feeling that less is definitely more. I really believe that this year will really come down to the vocal performances on the nights (the jury votes the day before each semi during the recorded semi-final - recorded in case of technical difficulties on the night and they can just replay that one instead)

So here is my final list of all 42 songs from this year's Eurovision in my order of preference,..

 1  Czech Republic   Gabriela Gunčíková - I Stand
 2  Iceland   Greta Salóme - Hear Them Calling
 3  Georgia    Nika Kocharov & Young Georgian Lolitaz - Midnight Gold
 4  Belarus   Ivan - Help You Fly
 5  Ukraine   Jamala - 1944
 6  Russia   Sergey Lazarev - You Are the Only One
 7  Latvia   Justs - Heartbeat
 8  Croatia   Nina Kraljić - Lighthouse
 9  United Kingdom   Joe & Jake - You're Not Alone
10  Belgium   Laura Tesoro - What's the Pressure
11  Bulgaria   Poli Genova - If Love Was a Crime
12  Australia   Dami Im - Sound of Silence
13  Spain   Barei - Say Yay!
14  France   Amir - J'ai cherché
15  Malta   Ira Losco - Walk on Water
16  Bosnia-Herzegovina   Dalal & Deen ft. Ana Rucner and Jala  - Ljubav je
17  Austria    Zoë - Loin d'ici
18  Estonia   Jüri Pootsmann -  Play
19  Serbia   ZAA Sanja Vučić - Goodbye (Shelter)
20  Armenia   Iveta Mukuchyan - LoveWave
21  Moldova   Lidia Isac - Falling Stars
22  Ireland   Nicky Byrne - Sunlight
23  Slovenia   ManuElla  - Blue and Red
24  Montenegro   Highway - The Real Thing
25  Germany   Jamie-Lee Kriewitz - Ghost
26  Poland   Michał Szpak - Color of Your Life
27  Cyprus   Minus One  - Alter Ego
28  Lithuania   Donny Montell - I've Been Waiting for This Night
29  Azerbaijan   Samra - Miracle
30  Hungary   Freddie - Pioneer
31  Finland   Sandhja - Sing It Away
32  FYR Macedonia    Kaliopi - Dona
33  Israel   Hovi Star - Made of Stars
34  Norway   Agnete - Icebreaker
35  San Marino   Serhat - I Didn't Know
36  Italy   Francesca Michielin - No Degree of Separation
37  Sweden   Frans - If I Were Sorry
38  Greece   Argo - Utopian Land
39  Albania   Eneda Tarifa - Fairytale Love
40  Switzerland   Rykka - The Last of Our Kind
41  Denmark   Lighthouse X - Soldiers of Love
42  Netherlands   Douwe Bob - Slow Down

From this list I have created what WOULD be my 10 qualifiers, however I'm not completely happy with it...

SF1 1            Czech Republic 2            Iceland 6            Russia 8            Croatia 15          Malta 16          Bosnia-Herzegovina 17          Austria  18          Estonia 20          Armenia 21          Moldova

SF 2 3            Georgia 4            Belarus 5            Ukraine 7            Latvia 10          Belgium 11          Bulgaria 12          Australia 19          Serbia 22          Ireland 23          Slovenia

Do I think these 20 will qualify? No.

In regards to SF1 there are a few notable omissions from my personal list. Greece have a 100% qualification record but I find their song too messy and lacking in conviction. Last year they just scraped into the final with a more commercial song but I fear that the diaspora may be enough to get them through. Azerbaijan also has a 100% record but the song is weaker and her vocals even weaker. Again they only just scraped through last year with a much more visual performance. I guess all 100% records must come to an end at some point and fear this may be the case for at least one of them. Although Cyprus have a less successful record of qualifying their song does stand out in the semi and may get extra votes from viewers who like their style. The Netherlands song is getting a lot of love from the fans but I honestly don't know who would love this song enough to actually vote for it. On the other hand I have huge issues with Croatia as their stage show seems so over the top and garish, I fear people will laugh rather than vote, even though it is a very beautiful song. The main song I worry about st Czech republic. They have never qualified and doesn't really have a notable diaspora. I can only hope that the juries lap this up AND that people vote for a simple gimmickless straightforward song.

SF2 is a very tricky one to call as there could literally be millions of possible and credible permutations based on the act on the night. Norway is a notable omission. The song is too odd, the staging has been downgraded since the national final and like the Netherlands I don't know who will be affected enough by the song or singer to vote. Returnees from Macedonia and Lithuania are not on my list either. The former due to the fact it is a very old fashioned song which I fear, no matter how full of character Kaliopi is, will be passed by. Lithuania's show seems like a total mess. The song is modern but needs a simpler and more lyric driven show rather than the gyrating and gymnastics he has on screen. I feel that the ballads in the semi are at a real disadvantage as they all seem a bit too similar. I personally don't like Israel's song but is quite contemporary so may just sneak through. I am very doubtful that Slovenia will qualify and Ireland is a real borderline case. Although Georgia are my winners of the semi I don't think they will get any love from the juries and won't get enough clout from the televote to qualify.

This is who I predict will qualify from each semi

SF1:

Moldova, Croatia, Armenia, Russia, Czech Republic, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, Iceland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Malta 

SF2:
Latvia,  Israel,  Belarus,  Serbia,  Ireland,  Lithuania,  Australia,  Bulgaria,  Ukraine,  Belgium

I'm not really happy with that 'prediction' either but this year is so random almost anything goes...
That said  it is a fair-ish assumption that it's easier to predict the 3 no-hopers in each semi...
SF1 - Finland, San Marino and Montenegro             SF2 - Switzerland, Denmark and Albania

Basically any combination of the other 15 songs in each semi could be a viable prediction. That's about as confident as I get prediction wise.... But I will be willing to eat my hat if even this proves to be wrong!

BBC Radio Bristol

So, yesterday afternoon I was once again invited onto the Steve Yabsley Show on BBC Radio Bristol and BBC Somerset to talk about all things Eurovision.

I was on for just under half a hour and it was nice talking about the event's history as well as giving a few pointers to this year's contest. Below is the bbc iplayer link and my part starts at around 37:41 just after the travel update and sports advert.

If you have any ideas about what I might rename my blog this summer tweet me at @dvvholland

I hope I have done the Eurovision fandom proud


http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03rfh54

Re-writing songs...

Imagine if I had been asked to co-write this year's Eurovision songs....

Last week on Twitter I got a bit bored and had a go - therefore the majority of them got written under the 140 character limit for tweets - hence why most of them are quite short.


SPAIN
Come on and raise your bottle high
Swing low and quickly stab his thigh

You keep on taking smiley pills
Us boys we have the bestest thrills


SAN MARINO
I didn't know
It's appalling for you
That my song sounds like poo
I didn't know
That you've bought a shot gun
I'm target number one


MONTENEGRO
Feel it... I love snorkeling yeah
I'm gonna swim for your love
Gonna splash, gonna catch fish
I'm gonna hold my breath and hold my nose


CYPRUS
Caught in the middle of watching a porno flick
My mother walked in, was immediatly sick
Under the bed clothes I wank in the moonlight


CROATIA
There was a fight, on the railway, tried so hard to keep away
But there in that pie, cooking away are 4 members of Suede
Please take me back to the
The Mad House
The Mad House
The Mad House


GEORGIA
When I came to... North Aberdeen
I went to Peterhead
Made sure the Loch Ness Monster was really dead


IRELAND
We'll be outside having a bitch... fight
I shagged your brother, pathetic lover
It's a bitch... fight
I tried to smother your stupid mother


LATVIA
I'm making a spreadsheet
of things that I want, things that I need
Like loo roll and chocolate and Speed.


BELARUS
I will help you learn how to drive how, to drive
Stay on the main roads - not the M5, the M5


AZERBAIJAN
This is not satirical
This is not political - I say to you
I'll mime every single note
But I have rigged the vote
We're off to Baku...


MALTA
I feel this song is like bathwater.. bathwater... bathwater
One sat in by a really dirty squatter, a squatter, a squatter


FRANCE
Glue
It's the thing that's making me strong
I'll be sniffing sniffing for
Glue
Like the farts that make a big pong


SWEDEN
I drive a lorry
Do bird watching from the quarry
And I like Corrie

Gets a bit gory
I sit on the lavatory
That's mandatory


SLOVENIA
Cause poo is poo and wee is wee
But both end up in your nappy
I think you find it entertaining
Just wait 'til we do potty training


ISRAEL
Drunk in bars
Pissheads always fallin'
We are... drunk in bars.
We are behind bars,
Did a moonie to a copper
Now behind bars


SWITZERLAND
It's the last roller blind
In the hardware shop, and it's closing time
Gotta buy something quickly
It's the last roller blind


NORWAY
I'll eat a gob....stopper
It's a bubble gum that's hardened, a bubble gum that's hardened.


BELGIUM
Where is Cheshire?
It can snow in Wilmslow my good friends
And in Sproston
Peeps are kind but colour blind and in debt.


GERMANY
Just make some toast for you
Don't make some toast for me
I've got myself a bowl of muesli
Tell me who's smug now!


POLAND
O - O – O – O - I'm up for a fight
That asshole is my wife
O – O – O –O - she is such a tart
And missing a body part


GREECE
We're the fall of the falling star
Come and relax in a spa
We're the fall of the falling star
But we're skint so you're paying the lot


HUNGARY
Million Safeways, a million Prestos
Be proud, shops were epic in the 80's
A million Bejams, a million Kwik Saves
and I so miss the Pioneer


NETHERLANDS
You gotta shut up Douwe, shut up Douwe,
Shut up with your stupid song.
Shut up Douwe, shut up Douwe
Shut up and go light a bong


MACEDONIA
Dona, Dona, Dona, Dona, Dona Chameleon
You come and gooooooo
You come and gooooooo-oooooo-oooooo-ooooooo


DENMARK
Let's be gay men of Hove, gay men of Hove, gay men of Hove tonight
Take my hand and never let go, never let go and let’s be gay men of Hove


AUSTRALIA
Now my nose awakes to the smell of science
And it sneezes to the smell of science
And it sneezes to the smell of science