FINAL

Well, those semi-finals ended up being as clear as mud – however my predictions on the 3 acts from each semi what WOULDN’T qualify did ring true!

So first let’s look at is the final running order. As is it has been for the past few years the producers of the show formulate the running order. This is to try and stop similar songs, or too different, songs being placed next to each other in major succession when drawn randomly. The only parameters they have to go on is each finalist drew a lot to decide if they are in the top or bottom half of the draw. Plus the host nation, Sweden drew their placing at random at the delegation meeting back in March.

This is how Saturday night will pan out…

Grand final running order

Belgium

Czech Republic

The Netherlands

Azerbaijan

Hungary

Italy

Israel

Bulgaria

Sweden

Germany

France

Poland

Australia

Cyprus

Serbia

Lithuania

Croatia

Russia

Spain

Latvia

Ukraine

Malta

Georgia

Austria

United Kingdom

Armenia

It is a rather odd running order.

Belgium, like Finland in the first semi-final is a rather safe and stereotypical number to start off the night and does slightly put the slower songs of Czech Republic and Netherlands in the shade. It’s not really until Bulgaria who are the 8th song does it perk up again.

France get a good draw being between two quite samey ballads. Australia are followed by Cyprus which may be so loud you totally forget her OR remind you how good a singer she is. The second half of the draw is very messy. Having Russia followed by Spain makes no sense and having such a gentle song like Austria preceded by Georgia will be such a stark difference I feel it won’t do either song any good. UK being second last is nice but may well be out classed by Armenia in the last position. However I feel that by the time Georgia has finished the last 4 won’t be seen or heard due to blotchy eyes and ringing ears.

POINTS TO NOTE

*Sweden is the only Nordic nation in the final so one may assume that high numbers of points from those DNQ countries might go their way. That said, Sweden won’t have it their own way as will may have some competition from Latvia who have a similar act with a far more emotive song.

In the same vein you could note that Croatia and Serbia are the only ex-Yugoslav countries in the final so you would expect the others to be giving them a larger score than average. Although this might not make be big enough to win, the shifting of votes might be big enough for a favourite to lose.

*On the other hand there are 7 ex-USSR countries in the final and I feel that ALL the old Soviet states may find their loyalties and loves stretched across all seven in the final. Yes, Russia will probably get the majority of the 12s but those that don’t may be cost them the win. And although there is no such thing as a ‘sympathy vote’ there may well be a ‘solidarity vote’ or ‘tactical vote’ away from Russia instead – probably towards Ukraine (due to politics) or Georgia (because of diverse genre|)

*It was nice to see the 6 automatic finalists being shown during the semi-finals. Although each clip was only seen for a minute it makes you that little bit more familiar with the before you see them properly in full. I feel that this gesture really hasn’t changed any of the big 5 plus Sweden’s chances.

*I also feel that those more divisive songs and singers e.g. Ukraine, Georgia,  Cyprus, Austria, Israel etc. etc., may cancel out or remove votes from more populist countries like Sweden and Russia. This may mean that those countries running close behind might actually end up winning a portion of the televote.

*I doubt very much in this close run year that the jury winner will be the televote winner. With the 100/100 scoring we have now it will be ultra clear as to who has voted what and ‘trends’ will be easier to spot. After a Russian jury member was disqualified earlier in the week for filming the jury final on periscope AND discussing her feelings with other jurors, this part will be under real scrutiny. I feel that the jury winner will be more an all-round show whilst the televote winner will either be best show OR best vocal.

Basically I *still* have no clue how this is going to go. There seem to be 5-6 songs leading the betting however I feel you can take France out of that equation. The voting sequence at the end, where all the televotes are collated and given individually to each country in ascending order will make for a very exciting ending especially if the jury vote and televote are dissimilar.

All I will say is this – PLEASE VOTE... *but* vote carefully and vote for what you like. This year more than any other, your vote could well make a difference between someone winning and losing…

Cue LT United...

.... and here s my FINAL pre-final favourites list.
This is NOT what I think will happen just the songs in order of my favourites :)

Rank      Entry
1  Georgia Nika Kocharov & Young Georgian Lolitaz Midnight Gold
2  Australia Dami Im Sound of Silence
3  Croatia Nina Kraljić Lighthouse
4  Ukraine Jamala 1944
5  Latvia Justs Heartbeat
6  Czech Republic Gabriela Gunčíková I Stand
7  Belgium Laura Tesoro What's the Pressure
8  Russia Sergey Lazarev You Are the Only One
9  United Kingdom Joe & Jake You're Not Alone
10  Austria  Zoë Loin d'ici
11  Bulgaria Poli Genova If Love Was a Crime
12  Spain Barei Say Yay!
13  Cyprus Minus One  Alter Ego
14  France Amir J'ai cherché
15  Italy Francesca Michielin Nessun grado di separazione
16  Serbia ZAA Sanja Vučić Goodbye (Shelter)
17  Germany Jamie-Lee Kriewitz Ghost
18  Malta Ira Losco Walk on Water
19  Poland Michał Szpak Color of Your Life
20  Armenia Iveta Mukuchyan LoveWave
21  Azerbaijan Samra  Miracle
22  Hungary Freddie Pioneer
23  Israel Hovi Star Made of Stars
24  Lithuania Donny Montell I've Been Waiting for This Night
25  Sweden Frans  If I Were Sorry
26  Netherlands Douwe Bob Slow Down