For the first time in a loooooooooooooong time, fans, insiders and bookiess all seem a bit at sea - no-one seems to agree or settle on a major favourite or out and out probable winner. And after a week of rehearsals, some songs seem to have shot up, others wavered and others sank like a stone. I have taken a conscious decision this year NOT to watch rehearsal footage on line (although I will admit to watching 3-4 clips online just to see the fuss). Partially this is a time issue as I'm working full time at the moment AND having to cope with a high maintenance Squirt, and partially because I would like to leave some of the surprises to the actual night. I have however been keeping up with the views and opinions on twitter and facebook as well as an eye on the live feed from eurovision.tv . On here they have montage videos summing up the day's events that last only a few minutes each as well as looking at the photo albums from the rehearsals.
My opinions have changed over time and have slightly altered over the past week. I would say that it's not so much that lots of songs have gone up in my estimation, more that lots of performances have put me off. There is a lot of unnecessaryness (is that even a word?) this year in terms of stage costumes and props and I get the feeling that less is definitely more. I really believe that this year will really come down to the vocal performances on the nights (the jury votes the day before each semi during the recorded semi-final - recorded in case of technical difficulties on the night and they can just replay that one instead)
So here is my final list of all 42 songs from this year's Eurovision in my order of preference,..
1 Czech Republic Gabriela Gunčíková - I Stand
2 Iceland Greta Salóme - Hear Them Calling
3 Georgia Nika Kocharov & Young Georgian Lolitaz - Midnight Gold
4 Belarus Ivan - Help You Fly
5 Ukraine Jamala - 1944
6 Russia Sergey Lazarev - You Are the Only One
7 Latvia Justs - Heartbeat
8 Croatia Nina Kraljić - Lighthouse
9 United Kingdom Joe & Jake - You're Not Alone
10 Belgium Laura Tesoro - What's the Pressure
11 Bulgaria Poli Genova - If Love Was a Crime
12 Australia Dami Im - Sound of Silence
13 Spain Barei - Say Yay!
14 France Amir - J'ai cherché
15 Malta Ira Losco - Walk on Water
16 Bosnia-Herzegovina Dalal & Deen ft. Ana Rucner and Jala - Ljubav je
17 Austria Zoë - Loin d'ici
18 Estonia Jüri Pootsmann - Play
19 Serbia ZAA Sanja Vučić - Goodbye (Shelter)
20 Armenia Iveta Mukuchyan - LoveWave
21 Moldova Lidia Isac - Falling Stars
22 Ireland Nicky Byrne - Sunlight
23 Slovenia ManuElla - Blue and Red
24 Montenegro Highway - The Real Thing
25 Germany Jamie-Lee Kriewitz - Ghost
26 Poland Michał Szpak - Color of Your Life
27 Cyprus Minus One - Alter Ego
28 Lithuania Donny Montell - I've Been Waiting for This Night
29 Azerbaijan Samra - Miracle
30 Hungary Freddie - Pioneer
31 Finland Sandhja - Sing It Away
32 FYR Macedonia Kaliopi - Dona
33 Israel Hovi Star - Made of Stars
34 Norway Agnete - Icebreaker
35 San Marino Serhat - I Didn't Know
36 Italy Francesca Michielin - No Degree of Separation
37 Sweden Frans - If I Were Sorry
38 Greece Argo - Utopian Land
39 Albania Eneda Tarifa - Fairytale Love
40 Switzerland Rykka - The Last of Our Kind
41 Denmark Lighthouse X - Soldiers of Love
42 Netherlands Douwe Bob - Slow Down
From this list I have created what WOULD be my 10 qualifiers, however I'm not completely happy with it...
SF1
1 Czech Republic
2 Iceland
6 Russia
8 Croatia
15 Malta
16 Bosnia-Herzegovina
17 Austria
18 Estonia
20 Armenia
21 Moldova
|
SF 2
3 Georgia
4 Belarus
5 Ukraine
7 Latvia
10 Belgium
11 Bulgaria
12 Australia
19 Serbia
22 Ireland
23 Slovenia
|
Do I think these 20 will qualify? No.
In regards to SF1 there are a few notable omissions from my personal list. Greece have a 100% qualification record but I find their song too messy and lacking in conviction. Last year they just scraped into the final with a more commercial song but I fear that the diaspora may be enough to get them through. Azerbaijan also has a 100% record but the song is weaker and her vocals even weaker. Again they only just scraped through last year with a much more visual performance. I guess all 100% records must come to an end at some point and fear this may be the case for at least one of them. Although Cyprus have a less successful record of qualifying their song does stand out in the semi and may get extra votes from viewers who like their style. The Netherlands song is getting a lot of love from the fans but I honestly don't know who would love this song enough to actually vote for it. On the other hand I have huge issues with Croatia as their stage show seems so over the top and garish, I fear people will laugh rather than vote, even though it is a very beautiful song. The main song I worry about st Czech republic. They have never qualified and doesn't really have a notable diaspora. I can only hope that the juries lap this up AND that people vote for a simple gimmickless straightforward song.
SF2 is a very tricky one to call as there could literally be millions of possible and credible permutations based on the act on the night. Norway is a notable omission. The song is too odd, the staging has been downgraded since the national final and like the Netherlands I don't know who will be affected enough by the song or singer to vote. Returnees from Macedonia and Lithuania are not on my list either. The former due to the fact it is a very old fashioned song which I fear, no matter how full of character Kaliopi is, will be passed by. Lithuania's show seems like a total mess. The song is modern but needs a simpler and more lyric driven show rather than the gyrating and gymnastics he has on screen. I feel that the ballads in the semi are at a real disadvantage as they all seem a bit too similar. I personally don't like Israel's song but is quite contemporary so may just sneak through. I am very doubtful that Slovenia will qualify and Ireland is a real borderline case. Although Georgia are my winners of the semi I don't think they will get any love from the juries and won't get enough clout from the televote to qualify.
This is who I predict will qualify from each semi
SF1:
Moldova, Croatia, Armenia, Russia, Czech Republic, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, Iceland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Malta
SF2:
Latvia, Israel, Belarus, Serbia, Ireland, Lithuania, Australia, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Belgium
I'm not really happy with that 'prediction' either but this year is so random almost anything goes...
That said it is a fair-ish assumption that it's easier to predict the 3 no-hopers in each semi...
SF1 - Finland, San Marino and Montenegro SF2 - Switzerland, Denmark and Albania
Basically any combination of the other 15 songs in each semi could be a viable prediction. That's about as confident as I get prediction wise.... But I will be willing to eat my hat if even this proves to be wrong!
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